Prospective Surge of Measles Cases in the U.S. Over the Next Quarter-Century Due to Potential Decreases in Vaccination Rates
Rewritten Article:
diagnosed with measles in the U.S. might soar to tens of millions over the next 25 years if vaccination rates plummet, warns a study published in JAMA. This is troubling news for the nation, where anti-vaxxers have found their way into top government positions and a large percentage of the population remains oblivious to the perils of measles.
The researchers at Stanford University created a detailed model to examine how shifting vaccination rates in America would affect measles, rubella, polio, and diphtheria. In the grim scenario they envisioned, a 50% decline in childhood vaccinations could result in a staggering 51.2 million measles cases over a 25-year period. During the same timeframe, the model suggests that 9.9 million rubella, 4.3 million polio, and 197 diphtheria cases would occur. These catastrophic numbers would lead to approximately 10.3 million hospitalizations and 159,200 deaths, according to the model.
Even with vaccination rates steadying as they are in 2025, the next 25 years would still witness more than 850,000 cases in the U.S., the model estimates. A mere 10% drop in MMR immunization rates could cause a massive surge in measles infections, with an eye-watering 11.1 million cases over the following 25 years. Conversely, a 5% increase in vaccinations would mean the U.S. might face just 5,800 cases. The country needs a vaccination rate of around 95% to achieve herd immunity for measles, and the researchers calculate current vaccination coverage to be between 87.7% and 95.6%.
Immunization rates differ from state to state. New York, for instance, had a childhood vaccination rate of 97.7% for the 2023-24 school year, while Idaho lagged behind at 79.6%, according to the CDC.
Prior to the introduction of the measles vaccine in 1963, around 3 million to 4 million Americans were infected with the disease each year, states the CDC. This led to tens of thousands of hospitalizations, and roughly 400-500 deaths annually. Measles, however, isn't just deadly — it also causes "immune amnesia," making infected individuals unable to fight other infections.
The U.S. is currently experiencing its worst measles outbreak since the 1990s, with at least 800 cases reported across 25 states, as per the CDC. Illinois recently confirmed its first case, and three individuals — two children in Texas and an adult in New Mexico — have already lost their lives from the disease so far in 2023.
The parents of the 6-year-old girl who perished from measles in late February insisted they had no regrets about refusing vaccination, contending that their other four unvaccinated children were still healthy, reports the Texas Tribune. The father of an 8-year-old girl who died on April 3 maintained he didn't regret his decision not to vaccinate his daughter either, alleging that her demise was unrelated to measles and the poor quality of hospital care.
Both families of the deceased children contacted Children's Health Defense, a fringe anti-vaccine group that falsely claims vaccines are responsible for autism. The current head of the Department of Health and Human Services, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., helmed the organization from 2015 until 2023. This association offers little solace to the average American about improving MMR vaccination rates in the near future.
In fact, Kennedy recently proclaimed he'd expose the "cause" of autism by the autumn. Kennedy is spearheading the so-called Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement and has assembled a team of scientists to address what he's dubbed the autism "crisis." Kennedy is also rumored to have been compiling a database of autism cases, using private health records of American citizens, per NPR.
Kennedy recently made a jarring speech bemoaning the lack of romantic engagements among severely autistic people and has since appeared on Fox News to discuss a decline in American boys' testosterone levels. Kennedy has also suggested that numerous diseases are either new or non-existent compared to when he was a child.
"ADD, ADHD, speech delay, language delay, tics, Tourette syndrome, narcolepsy, ASD, autism, all of these are ailments I never heard of as a kid," Kennedy claimed during a speech on Tuesday. "They weren't part of the lexicon. They weren't part of the conversation."
"There was no spending in this country treating chronic diseases when my uncle was in office," Kennedy continued. "Today it's about $1.8 trillion annually. It's bankrupting our nation. 74% of American kids can't meet the military recruiting standards. How will we maintain our global standing with such an ailing populace?"
The reason Kennedy may have never encountered these ailments in his youth is because many of these conditions remained undiagnosed or unrecognized at the time, and those affected were often institutionalized instead. Kennedy's own aunt, Rosemary Kennedy, was confined and lobotomized during the early 1940s due to erratic behavior attributed to her birth complications. Her existence was concealed for decades, and her own parents seldom visited her. Rosemary's mother only saw her 20 years later. This history might provide a more accurate explanation than Kennedy's speculations about food dyes or the weekly conspiracy theories he peddles.
None of this is good news, to say the least. With science-denying cranks in charge of public health positions at the highest level, and a disturbing commitment to tracking individuals deemed "unfit" for military service or "tax-paying," it's safe to say public concern is justified. If the anti-vax movement remains unchecked, millions of people could get sick in the upcoming years. This is particularly worrying in light of Trump's insistence on staying in office beyond the legally mandated four years.
- The rising numbers of measles cases in the U.S. could potentially reach tens of millions over the next 25 years if vaccination rates continue to plummet, according to a study published in JAMA.
- The study, conducted by researchers at Stanford University, offers a grim picture of the future, predicting a significant increase in measles, rubella, polio, and diphtheria cases due to declining vaccination rates.
- The model suggests that as low as a 10% drop in MMR immunization rates could cause a massive surge in measles infections over the next 25 years.
- In 2023, the U.S. is experiencing its worst measles outbreak since the 1990s, with at least 800 cases reported across 25 states.
- The link between vaccination and certain health-and-wellness issues, such as mental health and medical-conditions, has become a contentious topic, with some anti-vaxxers citing autism as a potential side-effect.
- In 2023, the head of the Department of Health and Human Services, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., was associated with a fringe anti-vaccine group that claims vaccines are responsible for autism.
- The country's future vaccination rates and the policy decisions made by those in power could have a significant impact on the health and well-being of millions, raising concerns about the state of health-care and medical-conditions management in the U.S. in the years to come.
