Decline in birth rate reaches 1.35 offspring per woman
In a recent report by the Federal Statistical Office, it was revealed that Germany's birth rate in 2023 was at 1.35 children per woman, a figure that is below the replacement level of 2.1. This trend is not unique to Germany, as many European countries are grappling with similar sub-replacement fertility rates.
The highest birth rate in 2023 was recorded in Bulgaria (1.81 children per woman), while Germany was at the European average. However, the lowest birth rates were seen in Malta (1.06 children per woman) and Spain (1.12 children per woman).
For women with German citizenship, the birth rate was 1.23 children in 2024, a value last seen nearly 30 years ago in 1996. The birth rate for women with foreign citizenship was 1.84 children in 2024, showing a decrease of two percent. The frequency of foreign women's births has been decreasing since 2017, according to the Federal Office.
The current skills shortage can be traced back to the low birth rates in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. The decline in the birth rate slowed down significantly in 2022 and 2023, decreasing by eight and seven percent respectively. The lowest birth rates last year were calculated at 1.21 for Berlin and the highest at 1.42 for Lower Saxony.
The long-term effects of a low birth rate in Germany and Europe include significant demographic and economic challenges. Europe's total population is projected to stagnate or decline, with a notable loss of working-age people. For instance, Europe could lose 49 million people aged 20-64 by 2050, including 11 million in Germany alone. This shrinking working-age population threatens economic growth and sustainability of social welfare systems.
A low birth rate means fewer younger people to support an aging population, increasing the financial and structural strain on pension funds and healthcare services, which rely on the contributions and workforce of younger generations. With fewer children born and an increasing median age, there are fewer people entering the labor market to sustain economic productivity and consumption, which may ultimately slow growth and reduce Europe's global economic competitiveness.
Many European governments, including Germany, have implemented policies like parental leave benefits, child allowances, improved childcare provision, and labor market measures aimed at supporting working parents and encouraging higher fertility. However, these policies have not yet reversed the trend of sub-replacement fertility in Germany and much of Europe.
Martin Bujard, research director at the Federal Institute for Population Research, attributes the low birth rate to high investments in family policy. He warns that the long-term effects of such a low birth rate are often underestimated, leading to a skills shortage and decreasing pensions despite higher contributions.
The current low birth rate is due to multiple crises, including the war in Ukraine, poor economic development, climate crisis, inflation, and the rise of right-wing populism. These factors have contributed to delayed parenthood, with the average age at childbirth rising, which interacts with family policies. Later childbirth may mean parents are financially better prepared for childcare but are less likely to receive informal care support, affecting childcare demands and family decisions.
In summary, while investments in family policy can support and sometimes slightly boost birth rates, they have not yet reversed the trend of sub-replacement fertility in Germany and much of Europe. The demographic consequences of low birth rates are profound, including labor shortages and social welfare funding challenges, making family policy a crucial but complex tool in addressing Europe's demographic future.
- To address the long-term challenges of a low birth rate, such as labor shortages and funding issues for social welfare systems, European governments like Germany have initiated policies that not only focus on family but also extend to workplace-wellness, health-and-wellness, mental-health, and fitness-and-exercise, aiming to make workplaces more conducive to raising families while promoting overall well-being.
- As part of their holistic approach to increase birth rates, some European governments have also started investing in science and research, particularly in the field of family policy, to understand the complex interplay of various factors affecting people's decisions to start families and to develop evidence-based strategies to encourage higher fertility rates.
- Recognizing the importance of mental health in overall well-being and its potential impact on decisions about starting families, European policymakers could consider boosting investments in mental health care services, offering more affordable and accessible mental health resources, and promoting a culture that encourages open conversations about mental health issues to support women in their childbearing years and beyond.
