Catastrophic Summer Death Toll Linked to Climate Change Impact
In a groundbreaking study, researchers from Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine have estimated that climate change contributed to over 24,000 heat-related deaths this summer in 854 European cities. The study, which has been acknowledged by other scientists, found that the elderly were particularly at risk, with over 85% of the deaths affecting people over 65. The European cities with the highest numbers of heat-related deaths attributed to climate change this summer were Rome (835 deaths), Athens (636 deaths), Paris (417 deaths), Madrid (387 deaths), Bucharest (275 deaths), London (264 deaths), and Berlin (147 deaths). Italy had the most urban heat deaths (4,597), followed by Spain (2,841) and Germany (1,477). The methods used in these attribution studies are scientifically robust, but cautious, according to Akshay Deoras, an atmospheric science specialist at a UK university. The researchers modeled how much climate change contributed to the high temperatures this summer and estimate that, without climate change, the average temperatures would have been 2.2°C lower in the affected cities. This summer saw several heatwaves, and the summer was the hottest ever recorded in several countries, such as Spain, Portugal, and the UK. The study highlights that the health effects of heat include exacerbation of cardiovascular problems, dehydration, sleep disorders, among others. The actual death toll from heat-related mortality could potentially be higher than the estimates provided by the study, with some scientists suggesting that the study might be underestimating the actual impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The study's findings have been praised by many researchers external to the study. Friederike Otto, co-author of the study, admitted that real-time statistics are not currently available, but the estimates are considered accurate. Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, another co-author, stated that heatwaves are 'silent killers' and that it only takes for heatwaves to be 2 to 4°C hotter for thousands of people to pass away. This is the first estimate of this magnitude on the health impacts of a summer marked by particularly high temperatures in Europe. A study published by Nature Medicine a year after the period concerned estimated that heat-related mortality caused some 47,000 deaths in Europe in 2023. The study focuses on 854 European cities. This type of study aims to provide a quick estimate of mortality linked to climate change, without waiting for a formal publication in a scientific journal with a more robust methodology. The study concludes that between 15,013 and 17,864 heat-related deaths this summer would not have occurred without climate change, in these cities which represent only a third of the European population.
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