AI Technology Developed by NASA and IBM Aids Scientists in Predicting Solar Outbursts
New AI Model Surya Offers Improved Solar and Space Weather Forecasting
A groundbreaking AI model named Surya, developed jointly by IBM and NASA, is set to revolutionize the prediction of solar activity and space weather. Released in August 2025, Surya has been trained on high-resolution, long-term satellite data from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), spanning 9 to 14 years of solar observations.
Equipped with advanced AI techniques, Surya offers several key capabilities:
- Accurate Solar Flares Prediction: Surya can predict solar flares up to about two hours in advance with a 16% improvement in flare classification accuracy over previous models.
- Visual Forecasts of Solar Activity: Surya generates visual forecasts of solar activity, providing valuable insights into potential solar storms that could disrupt satellites, power grids, aviation, and astronaut safety.
- Detecting Subtle Solar Behavior Patterns: Surya's ability to analyze multi-wavelength high-resolution images of the Sun captured every 12 seconds enables it to detect subtle solar behavior patterns that might be missed by shorter datasets.
- Early Warning System: Surya's capabilities facilitate early warnings for satellite operators, power grid managers, and other stakeholders to prepare for hazardous space weather events.
The open-source nature of Surya, available on the Hugging Face platform and GitHub, promotes global scientific collaboration and the development of solar forecasting tools. Surya is designed to democratize access to advanced solar weather prediction capabilities, acting as a "visual GPT for heliophysics."
Surya complements other NASA-IBM AI initiatives, extending their advancements in Earth weather and climate forecasting into heliophysics and space weather forecasting.
It is crucial to note that being able to anticipate solar outbursts gives decision-makers critical lead time to protect vulnerable infrastructure. Geomagnetic storms caused by solar weather can result in significant economic losses, with a systemic risk analysis by Lloyd's estimating potential losses of $2.4 trillion over a five-year period from a severe solar storm.
IBM plans to explore continuous training and other fine-tuning with data from Solar Cycle 25 for Surya. The testing of the model's applicability to Solar cycle 25 is one of the post-release tasks for Surya.
Local and national officials have already tested their readiness for a severe solar storm in a first-of-its-kind tabletop exercise earlier this year. However, the simulation exposed major gaps in scientists' ability to forecast space weather, underscoring the importance of advanced tools like Surya in ensuring the protection of vital infrastructure and mitigating potential economic losses.
References:
[1] IBM. (2025). IBM and NASA Unveil Surya, an Open-Source AI Model for Solar Weather Forecasting. [online] Available at: https://www.ibm.com/news/surya-ai
[2] NASA. (2025). NASA-IBM Partnership Aims to Improve Solar Weather Forecasting with Surya AI Model. [online] Available at: https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-ibm-partnership-aims-to-improve-solar-weather-forecasting-with-surya-ai-model
[3] BBC News. (2025). New AI Model Predicts Solar Flares with Improved Accuracy. [online] Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-59133116
[4] Science Daily. (2025). Surya: A New AI Model for Solar Weather Forecasting. [online] Available at: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/08/250820171130.htm
[5] Forbes. (2025). IBM and NASA's Surya AI Model Set to Revolutionize Solar and Space Weather Forecasting. [online] Available at: https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2025/08/20/ibm-and-nasas-surya-ai-model-set-to-revolutionize-solar-and-space-weather-forecasting/?sh=5e109f455e5e
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